Report Questions Renewable Fuel Standard

A congressionally-requested report from the National Research Council found that the United States is unlikely to be able to meet its Renewable Fuel Standard.

The Renewable Fuel Standard, which is a subtitle of the Energy Independence and Security Act enacted by Congress in 2007, mandates that 35 billion gallons of ethanol-equivalent biofuels and 1 billion gallons of biomass-based diesel be consumed in the United States by 2022. The law mandates that by 2022 the United States must produce 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels, along with 15 billion gallons of conventional corn-based ethanol, one billion gallons of biodiesel, and four billion gallons of advanced biofuels.

The United States already has the capacity to produce 14 billion gallons of corn-grain ethanol, an amount close to the consumption mandate for conventional biofuels in 2022. Wisconsin's annual ethanol production capacity has reached 470 million gallons, making it the 9th largest ethanol producing state in the nation.

It is the cellulose-based fuel mandate that will likely fall short. In 2012, the mandate calls for motorists to use 500 million gallons of cellulose-based fuel, but the government estimates that as little as 3.5 million gallons actually will be produced. By 2022, refiners are required to use 16 billion gallons annually. But those targets can't be met “unless innovative technologies that unexpectedly improve the cellulosic biofuel production process and technologies are scaled up and undergo several commercial-scale demonstrations in the next few years,” the study said.

The study also warned against the possible negative environmental outcomes that could result from the RFS. Renewable fuels may not provide the greenhouse gas emissions reductions hoped for, and production can impact air quality, water quality, water use, and biodiversity.

This report was released shortly after the U.S. Navy, the Department of Agriculture, and the Department of Energy announced a $510 Million interagency initiative to spur production of advanced marine and aviation biofuels. The future of additional government sponsored programs could be threatened by the National Research Council’s study.